Substack Growth Strategy Skill
The 2025 Substack Reality
Key platform facts:
- 5 million+ paid subscriptions (up from 4M four months ago)
- 35 million+ active subscriptions (free + paid)
- 50,000+ publishers generating income
- App drives ~1/3 of all paid subscriptions
- Algorithm optimizes for subscriptions and paid conversions, not engagement
The Challenge
Organic discovery is getting harder as the platform grows. Many writers report 80-90% subscriber growth drop in 2025 due to:
- Algorithm bias toward big names
- Increased competition
- Content saturation
Solution: Maximize native features (Notes, Recommendations) + external traffic sources.
The Three Growth Pillars
1. Newsletter (Foundation)
Your newsletter builds trust. It's what people subscribe for.
2. Notes (Visibility)
Notes build reach. They're your organic marketing channel.
3. Recommendations (Network Effects)
Recommendations create compounding growth through cross-promotion.
Notes: The Fastest Growth Channel
Notes is "the most efficient subscriber acquisition channel on the entire platform when used correctly."
The Numbers
- Smaller creators acquire 60% of new free subscribers via Notes recommendations
- Daily Notes = 40-60% of total subscriber growth for active users
- Some creators: 0 to 500 subscribers in weeks using Notes alone
The 20-Minute Daily Routine
Total time: 20 minutes/day for consistent growth (5-11 new subscribers/day reported)
Morning (7 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Community-focused (invites interaction)
├── Leave 2-3 thoughtful comments on others' Notes
└── Reply to any comments on your Notes
Midday (6 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Educational (one specific tip/insight)
└── Leave 2-3 comments on trending Notes in your niche
Evening (7 min):
├── Post 1 Note: Personal/motivational (builds connection)
├── Reply to all new comments
└── Restack 1-2 great Notes from others
Notes Best Practices
Frequency:
- Beginners: 3-5 Notes/week
- Intermediate: 1-3 Notes/day
- Growth mode: 2-3 Notes/day + 5-10 comments/day
Content Types:
- Quick insights (snackable)
- Questions that spark discussion
- Quotes from your newsletter
- Teasers for upcoming posts
- Celebrating other writers
Comments Matter More:
- Every comment = free visibility
- Days with 3-4 thoughtful comments = subscriber spikes
- Avoid "Great post!" — add genuine value
- Substack reminds people to subscribe when you interact with them
The Restack Multiplier
Restacking = retweeting. When you restack, it appears in your followers' feeds.
Strategic restacking:
- Restacks outside your main topic = more visibility, not less
- Share others' long-form posts to Notes (shows audience overlap to algorithm)
- Restack great work generously (good community + good strategy)
Algorithm Insight
"The algorithm now heavily amplifies Notes that actively drive subscription behavior — not just likes or comments, but actual 'go subscribe to this writer' recommendations."
Notes with explicit recommendations ("You should subscribe to [writer]") got thousands of views vs normal 300 views.
Recommendations: The Network Effect
40%+ of growth can come from recommendations alone.
How It Works
- You recommend other Substacks
- Your recommendations show to new subscribers
- Recommended writers are prompted to recommend you back
- Their new subscribers see your recommendation
Setting Up Recommendations
- Go to Settings → Recommendations
- Add publications you genuinely recommend
- Write meaningful blurbs (most writers skip this — don't)
- Target similar audience, ideally with more subscribers
The Blurb Matters
"Many writers click the Recommend button, but few take the time to write a blurb — that's a mistake."
A good blurb:
- Says why you recommend them
- Gets added to their Welcome page
- Increases reciprocal recommendations
Strategy: The Recommendation Ladder
- Start with peers — Writers at your level, similar niche
- Build relationships — Engage genuinely before asking
- Move up gradually — Larger writers as you grow
- Be generous — Recommend without expecting reciprocation
What Works Best
- Similar audience demographic
- Complementary (not competing) content
- Writers you genuinely read and value
- Writers active in the community
The Discovery Funnel
How Substack Discovery Works
Notes Activity
↓
Algorithm sees audience overlap
↓
Your content shown to similar readers
↓
Recommendations amplify this
↓
Leaderboard visibility (if earning)
↓
Featured placements
Leaderboards
Two types per category:
| Leaderboard | Ranking Factor | Update Frequency |
|---|
| Rising | Paid subscription growth | Every few hours |
| Bestseller | Annual Recurring Revenue | Daily |
To appear on leaderboards:
- Paid subscriptions must be enabled
- Choose primary + secondary category strategically
- Consistent paid growth matters
Category Strategy:
- Primary = where you appear on leaderboard
- Secondary = expanded discovery reach
- Check competitors in your niche
- Consider less saturated categories
Free vs Paid Content Strategy
Conversion Benchmarks
- Most newsletters convert 5-10% of free subscribers to paid
- 40%+ open rate = healthy engagement for conversion
Two Models
1. The Subscription Model (Paywall)
- Best content behind paywall
- Works for: investing, business, high-value actionable info
- Readers pay monthly/annually for access
2. The Product Model (Free + Premium)
- Best content stays free
- Premium = community, resources, courses, templates
- Works for: educators, creators, thought leaders
What Works for Paywalls
- Clear value proposition — pitch the upgrade every time you're in front of free readers
- Assets behind paywall — templates, swipe files, spreadsheets, tools
- Community access — private Slack/Discord as paid benefit
- Preview then gate — explain what's inside before locking
2025 Reality
"People are no longer paying for 'content'. They're paying for access to solutions to their problems."
Just content isn't enough anymore. Consider:
- Community
- Office hours / Q&A
- Resources / tools
- Early access
- Direct access to you
When to Turn On Paid
Most successful writers:
- Start free
- Build to critical mass (few thousand subscribers)
- Then enable paid with clear value proposition
Subscriber Retention
Acquiring a new subscriber is 5-25x more expensive than retaining one.
Reducing churn by just 5% can boost profitability by 75%.
Retention Signals
Watch in your Substack dashboard:
- Paid subscriber retention curves
- Sharp drops at 1-year renewal
- Open rate trends
- Reply rates
Retention Strategies
Personalized Value:
- Content that feels tailored
- Segment your audience (free vs paid)
- Address subscriber-specific needs
Consistent Communication:
- Regular schedule creates anticipation
- Builds habit, reduces surprise charges
Community Building:
- Sense of belonging
- Connection with you AND other readers
- Comments, Chat, community spaces
Proactive Retention Emails:
- Renewal reminders
- Expiration notices
- Cancellation win-backs
Predictive Indicators
At-risk subscribers often show:
- Declining open rates
- No recent clicks
- No comments/engagement
- Payment failures approaching
Cross-Platform Promotion
Don't rely on Substack discovery alone.
External Traffic Sources
| Platform | Strategy |
|---|
| Twitter/X | Thread with key insights → link to full newsletter |
| LinkedIn | Carousel summarizing post → "full breakdown in newsletter" |
| Instagram | Stories teasing content → link sticker |
| SEO | Evergreen posts that answer search queries |
The LinkedIn → Substack Pipeline
- Write short LinkedIn newsletter on your niche theme
- Tease but don't give away everything
- Link to full Substack post
- Convert LinkedIn readers to Substack subscribers
Homepage Optimization
- Add lead magnets to navigation
- Feature best posts / "Start Here"
- Clear upgrade CTA
- Pinned post for new visitors
Growth Timeline Expectations
Be realistic:
| Milestone | Typical Timeline |
|---|
| First 500 subscribers | 1-3 months (with Notes) |
| First 1,000 subscribers | 3-6 months |
| First paid subscriber | After ~1,000 free (varies) |
| 10% free→paid conversion | 6-12 months of nurturing |
| Sustainable income | 12-24 months |
Growth compounds. Early months feel slow, then accelerate.
Weekly Growth Routine
## Monday
- [ ] Publish newsletter
- [ ] Post 2-3 Notes promoting it
- [ ] Engage in comments
## Tuesday - Thursday
- [ ] 2-3 Notes per day
- [ ] 10+ comments on others' content
- [ ] Respond to all replies
- [ ] 1-2 restacks of great content
## Friday
- [ ] Review week's metrics
- [ ] Plan next week's newsletter
- [ ] Send any pending recommendations
## Weekend (optional)
- [ ] Light engagement
- [ ] Draft next newsletter
Metrics Dashboard
Weekly Tracking
| Metric | Target | Notes |
|---|
| New subscribers (free) | Steady growth | Notes = 40-60% of this |
| New subscribers (paid) | 5-10% of free | Conversion rate |
| Open rate | >40% | Engagement health |
| Click rate | >5% | Content relevance |
| Unsubscribes | <1% per email | Content/frequency issues |
Monthly Review
- Total subscriber growth rate
- Recommendation-sourced subscribers
- Notes engagement trends
- Retention curves
- Revenue growth (if paid)
Spanish-Language Growth (tacosdedatos)
The Opportunity
- Spanish-speaking Substack community is small but growing fast (+1,514% annual growth possible)
- Platform is Anglo-centric → less competition
- Collaborate with other Hispanic creators from day one
Spanish-Specific Tactics
- Cross-recommend with Spanish tech/data Substacks
- Notes in Spanish (engage the Hispanic community)
- Highlight Spanish content in Notes
- Feature in Spanish-language roundups
Growth Case Study
Veronica Llorca-Smith's "El Limonero":
- 0 → 2,680 subscribers in one year
- 50 paid subscribers
- 66 countries
- Key: Collaborating with Hispanic creators from start
Anti-Patterns
Don't:
- Spam Notes with self-promotion only
- Expect overnight growth
- Ignore the recommendation network
- Rely only on Substack discovery
- Publish inconsistently
- Skip engagement (Notes/comments)
- Gate ALL content (kills growth)
- Use engagement pods (Substack can detect)
Quarterly Strategy Review
## Substack Growth Review
### Subscribers
- [ ] Free growth rate vs last quarter
- [ ] Paid growth rate
- [ ] Recommendation-sourced %
- [ ] Notes-sourced %
### Content
- [ ] Publishing consistency
- [ ] Open rate trends
- [ ] Best performing posts — why?
- [ ] Worst performing — what to avoid?
### Engagement
- [ ] Notes activity level
- [ ] Comment engagement
- [ ] Recommendation reciprocity
### Revenue (if applicable)
- [ ] MRR/ARR growth
- [ ] Churn rate
- [ ] Conversion rate trends
### Next Quarter Goals
- [ ] Subscriber target
- [ ] Content experiments
- [ ] Collaboration targets
- [ ] New promotion channels
References
For algorithm research, source links, and detailed tactics, see references/REFERENCES.md.